CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 10 points, 51-41%, in the race to be Virginia’s next governor, according to the final Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research poll before Tuesday’s election.

“While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so,” institute director Dr. Harry Wilson said in a statement.

The Roanoke poll has Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leading Republican John Reid by just two points, 42-40%, well within the poll’s 4.05% margin for error.

The biggest movement from Roanoke’s August poll, which had Spanberger up by 7 points and Hashmi leading by 3, is that Republican incumbent Jason Miyares now leads Democrat Jay Jones, 46-38%. In the August poll, Jones led by 3 points, 41-38%.

Since then, text messages Jones sent in 2022 wishing that former Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert and Gilbert’s family would become the victims of gun violence surfaced, eroding support for Jones.

“While Jones has clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares, suggesting they may either ‘come home’ in the end or simply not vote in that race,” Wilson said. “As concerning for Jones, Miyares now narrowly leads among independents. It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general.”

While Jones’ text scandal has had a significant impact on the AG race, it hasn’t appeared to impact the rest of the ticket.

Meanwhile, the Republican ticket has been hurt by President Trump’s low approval ratings, which checked in at 40% in this recent poll.