CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – The U.S. Drought Monitor, as well as the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality Drought Monitoring Task Force, has observed improvements in the drought in many places in Virginia, but not the Charlottesville area.

The City of Charlottesville, Albemarle, Louisa, Nelson, Augusta, and Rockingham counties remain in “extreme” drought despite recent spotty rain, some of it heavy, having fallen on the area over the past week.

“On Thursday of this week, the U.S. Geological Survey reported that the Rivanna River near Charlottesville was at an all-time low for that day in history,” reported Jeff Ishee with On the Farm Radio.

That said, Westley Kern with the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority told Cville Right Now there is a caveat to that.

“The gauge hasn’t always existed, and as I found out while speaking with our Water Resources Coordinator, Bethany Houchens, it’s really only looking at 25 days’ worth of data,” Kern said. “The values provided compare the flow to the same day last year and every other year that data exists in the system. To further complicate the statistic, there was a break in the data from 1997 to 2020 where the gauge either didn’t exist or wasn’t reporting.”

“Yes, we are seeing decreased flows into the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir,” said Kern. “Recent rains have certainly helped, but we would like to see more precipitation in the forecast.”

In the recent past, RWSA has formed a local drought monitoring webpage for the public to track.

Kern is certainly getting that wish over the next week.

Accuweather’s 10-day forecast for the Charlottesville area has better than 50% rain chances each day starting Sunday, Aug. 2 through Saturday, Aug. 8, but it’s not a drought-buster.

“It’s going to be a ways before we actually put a true dent in this drought,” said Isaac Longley, Accuweather long-term meteorologist, told Cville Right Now. “You almost need more of like a tropical system working its way up the MidAtlantic coastline.”

“We are continuing to monitor our reservoir levels, and as of Thursday, the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir was 89.98% full, Ragged Mountain Reservoir was 87.62% full, Sugar Hollow Reservoir was 96.89% full, Beaver Creek Reservoir was 87.30% full, and Totier Creek Reservoir was 100% full,” RWSA’s Kern told Cville Right N ow. “The urban reservoirs, or rather those that feed the City of Charlottesville and the immediate urban ring around the city, had a combined total of 89.58% of usable capacity.”

“That said, we officially declared a ‘Drought Watch’ on July 14 triggered after a forecast model predicted a 54% chance that the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir water level could fall to 80% full within 12 weeks of the model being run,” said Kern. “The model is one of three potential internal triggers we use; the other two triggers look at the usable capacities at the South Fork Rivanna Reservoir and Beaver Creek Reservoir.”

The South Fork Rivanna Reservoir has a 259-square mile watershed that encompasses much of Albemarle, a little bit of Greene with headwaters in Shenandoah National Park, and the City of Charlottesville.

Any rain falling across that area is beneficial toward replenishing and stream flow.

The next week of rain chances, though much of it spotty, will help, according to Kern, but just how much is just not known right now.