CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Two things remained true in the wake of Virginia’s first ACC loss of the season Saturday night to visiting Wake Forest.

The Cavaliers can still put themselves in position to reach the ACC championship game by winning their final two games.

And, they’re not likely to do that if they can’t get their offense back on track.

“We’ve still got everything in front of us,” UVA coach Tony Elliott said after his team fell 16-9 to the Demon Deacons, failing to score a touchdown in a game for the first time since 2022.

Unfortunately, what seems to be behind them is the record-setting offensive production they flashed to open the season. And with the status of quarterback Chandler Morris, who left Saturday’s game after being sandwiched by two Wake defenders as he slid, uncertain, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely UVA (8-2, 5-1 ACC) will regain its early-season form. 

The defense has come on strong, helping keep Virginia in games the past four weeks. UVA has allowed just 18.3 points per game over its past four outings, a stat that includes the 88-yard touchdown the Cavaliers’ special teams allowed to Wake’s Carlos Hernandez.

But Virginia, after averaging 43 points per game over its first six contests, has been putting up 19.8 over its last four outings.

Saturday’s loss dropped it eight spots in the Associated Press Top 25 poll, falling from No. 12 to No. 20. Tuesday, the new College Football Rankings will come out and UVA can expect a similar drop from its No. 14 ranking there.

Still, if the Cavaliers can find a way to win their remaining two games, at Duke (5-4, 4-1) on Saturday and home against rival Virginia Tech (3-6, 2-3) in the regular-season finale, they would finish 7-1 in the ACC, clinch at least a share of the regular-season title and potentially earn a spot in the conference championship game in Charlotte.

They could share the top spot in the ACC standings with as many as two other teams and there are multiple iterations for how the final three weeks of the season could play out. 

The best case scenario for UVA, assuming it wins its last two games, involves Pitt (7-2, 5-1) beating Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1), then losing to Miami (7-2, 3-2), while SMU (7-3, 5-1) loses to Louisville (7-2, 4-2). That would leave UVA alone atop the ACC standings. 

There could be a two-way tie if the winner of Pitt-Georgia Tech doesn’t lose another game, but SMU does. Or if SMU doesn’t lose again, but the winner of Pitt-Georgia Tech takes a second league loss. In that scenario, the top two teams simply advance to Charlotte.

A three–way tie is also very much in play and is infinitely more complicated.

Again, the winner of Georgia Tech and Pitt also could also finish 7-1. SMU can finish 7-1 in league play with wins over Louisville and at Cal (6-4, 3-3).  

UVA has not played Georgia Tech, SMU or Pittsburgh head-to-head, so determining who would go to Charlotte for the championship game in the event of a three-way tie comes down to ACC tiebreakers.

An important note: Virginia’s non-conference loss to North Carolina State – an ACC member that agreed to a non-league game with UVA to fill out both teams’ schedules – will not factor into the tiebreaker scenarios, an ACC spokesperson confirmed for Cville Right Now on Sunday. That’s potentially important because Pittsburgh defeated the Wolfpack.

The first tiebreaker that would come into play is win percentage against common opponents. Virginia would lose the tiebreaker with Georgia Tech by virtue of the Yellow Jackets’ win over Wake Forest (6-3, 3-3).

That tiebreaker would not separate UVA, Pitt and/or SMU, so those teams order would be separated by winning percentage against teams in the order they appear in the final standings. (Virginia’s win over Louisville could be a major factor there.)

Of course, all of this is predicated on Virginia finishing the year with two more victories.

“All of our goals that we started the season with are still out there,” Elliott said. “We never had a goal that said we wanted to go undefeated in the ACC. Our goal is to win the conference championship and to win the state championship. Let’s not let this beat us twice.”

It all becomes a moot point if Virginia can’t bounce back and beat Duke on Saturday. And after Saturday’s loss, thats what the Cavaliers were talking about.

“It’s in our hands,” said center Brady Wilson. “Don’t let one game define us. Before this game, we were on a 7-game win streak.”

Saturday’s loss snapped that run, which tied for the longest in program history, as well as UVA’s school-record five-game ACC winning streak. It was a Wake loss for the Cavaliers, but it doesn’t have to be a burial for the team’s championship aspirations.