CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s governor’s race is down to seven points, three points closer than earlier this month, according to the latest polling by Christopher Newport’s Wason Center released Monday.
Spanberger holds a 50-43% edge just over a week out from Election Day, “a modest tightening,” according to the center’s director, Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo.
“It does still look like it’s a difficult climb for Earle-Sears, but not impossible,” Bromley-Trujillo said Monday.
This is the first poll the center released since the revelation of Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones’s violent text message scandal, and that situation has had a significant impact on likely voters, according to the poll.
According to the new Wason poll, 75% of respondents had heard of Jones’ scandal – when he texted another lawmaker and suggested he’d like to see former Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert and Gilbert’s family become the victims of gun violence – including 55% who said they had heard a lot about the situation.
Among those who had heard at least a little about the scandal, 47% said it was very or somewhat likely to influence their vote.
The most direct impact, of course, was on the attorney general’s race, where Republican incumbent Jason Miyares now holds a 1-point lead over Jones, 46-45%. When Wason released its previous poll, on Oct. 6, Jones held a 6-point lead.
Bromley-Trujillo called it a, “dramatic shift.”
“It’s pretty clear that the text message scandal is breaking through to voters,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
She said independent voters, in particular, have been influenced by it.
Bromley-Trujillo also noted that the scandal appeared to be pushing likely voters to not support Jones, but not necessarily to vote for Miyares.
And while for Jones, she said the scandal “may be costing him the race,” it hasn’t had the same level of impact at the top of the ticket.
“Spanberger is largely weathering this,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
A Spanberger win would likely predict a victory for Democrat Ghazala Hashmi in the race for lieutenant governor, Bromley-Trujillo said that race has seen “a pretty significant tightening.”
Hashmi, who led Republican John Reid by 9 points earlier this month, has seen her lead dwindle to 2 points in Monday’s version. The poll suggests that Reid has, “won over a chunk of undecided voters,” Bromley-Trujillo said.
After speaking at a campaign event Monday at the University of Virginia, Hashmi said she doesn’t believe voters will be splitting the ticket.
“As I talk to voters everywhere I go there is a strong understanding of what’s at stake in this particular election,” Hashmi told Cville Right Now. “The voters that I’m hearing from know that everyone is at stake and everything is on the line. And that Virginia is going to be playing a pivotal part in shaping the next steps for the rest of the country. The voters that I’m talking to our saying they’re voting for Democrats up and down the ballot.”
This was the center’s third and final poll of this election cycle, and included 803 likely voters. It had a margin of error of 4.1%, meaning both the lieutenant governor and attorney general races fall within that margin.

