RICHMOND, VA (CVILLE RIGHT NOW) – Nearly 90% of Virginians will hit the road as gas drops to lowest price in more than three years. That according to AAA, whose forecast runs from Saturday, December 21 to New Year’s Day. When all is said and done, 3.3 million Virginians will travel 50 miles or more, roughly 90,000 more than last year, and the highest AAA has seen in the 23 years that AAA has been tracking travelers for the year-end holiday period.

“It may be over the river and through the woods, or up in the sky and down to the Caribbean – many Americans are getting in holiday visits and trips before the calendar turns over to 2025,” said Morgan Dean, AAA Mid-Atlantic spokesperson for Virginia.

Details are found in the news release below.

Car

Nearly 90% of Virginia travelers, or nearly three million, will be hitting the roads during the holiday period. That’s up more than 2% from last year and nearly the same number that we saw during the holidays at the end of 2019. Drivers are getting an early holiday gift at the pumps as Virginia’s gas average is down to its lowest price in more than three years. At $2.90, Virginia’s average is down 11 cents from a month ago and down 8 cents from this day a year ago. Thirty-two states have gas prices under $3.00 per gallon.

Air

AAA predicts more than 185,000 Virginians will be jetting off to their holiday destinations.  That’s up 5% from last year and 6% higher than the number of flyers back in 2019.  The last time we saw more Virginia air travelers for this holiday was back in 2003. “Airports have been very busy this year with travelers,” said Dean.  “All 10 of the busiest days at security checkpoints in the Transportation Security Administration’s 23-year history have happened in 2024, with the Sunday after Thanksgiving holding the record with more than 3 million travelers processed.”

Other

In the Other category, made up of bus, train and cruise travel, AAA expects nearly 177,000 people will be traveling.  That’s about 20,000 more than last year and 40,000 more travelers than at the year-end holidays back in 2019. AAA’s National Travel Projections

Nationally, AAA forecasts:

  • More 119 million people will travel 50 miles or more from home this year for the holidays, narrowly surpassing the previous all-time high travel record set back in 2019.
  • Nearly 107 million Americans will drive to their holiday destinations. That’s about 2.5 million more road travelers than last year.
  • 85 million Americans are predicted to fly this year – up from 7.5 million who took to the skies last year.
  • AAA estimates travel by bus, rail, and cruise ship will surge to more than 4.4 million this holiday season, a 10% increase from last year.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, expects drivers will experience the worst traffic delays the weekends before Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. The holidays themselves are expected to have minimal congestion. Drivers in Boston, New York City, Seattle, and Washington, DC could see double the typical delays. Nationwide, travel times could be up to 30% longer.

Holiday Forecast Methodology  

Travel Forecast

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices, including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. DK SHIFFLET contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of November 4, 2024.

Because AAA forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

Year-End Holiday Travel Period

For this forecast, the year-end holiday travel period is defined as the twelve-day period from Saturday, December 21 to Wednesday, January 1. AAA’s year-end holiday travel period can range from 10 to 13 days, depending on which day of the week Christmas and New Year’s Day fall. This year’s holiday travel period is two days longer than last year. While a longer holiday travel period can offer more options for departures and return trips, all the year-end holiday periods contain two weekends.

About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, businesses, and individuals with the right data, expertise, and connected technology so that they can make decisions with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and accelerate progress for the world. We are widely sought after by many of the world’s leading organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics, and workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world’s leading organizations plan for tomorrow today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com.

About DKSA

DK SHIFFLET boasts the industry’s most complete database on U.S. resident travel both in the U.S. and worldwide. Data is collected monthly from a U.S. representative sample, adding over 60,000 traveling households annually, and is used daily by leading travel organizations and their strategic planning groups. DK SHIFFLET is an MMGY Global company.

About INRIX   

Founded in 2004, INRIX pioneered intelligent mobility solutions by transforming big data from connected devices and vehicles into mobility insights. This revolutionary approach enabled INRIX to become one of the leading providers of data and analytics into how people move. By empowering cities, businesses, and people with valuable insights, INRIX is helping to make the world smarter, safer, and greener. With partners and solutions spanning across the entire mobility ecosystem, INRIX is uniquely positioned at the intersection of technology and transportation – whether it’s keeping road users safe, improving traffic signal timing to reduce delay and greenhouse gasses, optimizing last mile delivery, or helping uncover market insights. Learn more at INRIX.com.